Councils Warn SEND System At Risk Of Collapse Without Urgent Reform

New analysis from the County Councils Network (CCN) warns that England’s SEND system is “on course for total collapse” unless the government brings forward long-promised reforms. The CCN–Isos Partnership report shows rapidly rising demand, escalating costs and widening deficits, despite councils investing significantly more over the past decade.

The number of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) has reached 638,000, and is projected to rise to almost 840,000 by 2029, an increase of 32% in just four years. Councils say the system was never designed for this level of need, with families facing long waits and a 55% rise in tribunal appeals over the past year.

A severe shortage of specialist places means councils are increasingly reliant on independent and non-maintained special schools. These placements have grown 165% since 2015, and currently cost an average of £60,800 per pupil, rising to a projected £72,000 by 2029. State-funded special schools are also under strain, with 83% full or over capacity.

SEND spending reached £12.2bn this year and is forecast to climb to £16.8bn by the end of the Parliament. Councils report a £2bn in-year funding gap, with cumulative deficits projected to hit £17.8bn by 2029 which is equivalent to nearly £1,000 for every child and young person in England. CCN says that without government intervention to address historic deficits, many councils could face effective bankruptcy when the statutory override ends in March 2028.

Despite a decade of rising expenditure, educational outcomes have not improved. Only 14% of GCSE pupils with EHCPs achieved expected Attainment 8 scores in 2025, and Level 2 attainment at age 19 has fallen to 30%, down from 37% ten years ago.

CCN is calling for a two-pronged approach: a national write-off of SEND deficits, and “root and branch” reform to curb demand, improve mainstream inclusion and ensure support is focused on those with the highest needs.

Read the full CCN press release and download the report here