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Hinterland - 23 May 2022
In Hinterland this time, a bevvy of stories about rural connectivity, a really interesting explanation of why job demand is booming in rural areas, some real lived experience around the explosion in the cost of living and a highly fashionable Cornish pub...
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Shortage of workers threatens UK recovery – here’s why and what to do about it
This is a long but fascinating piece on the strange conundrum of people having less to spend whilst unemployment is at a record low. It tells us:
Demand for labour (that’s all employment plus vacancies) has recovered to almost exactly its pre-pandemic level. But the data indicates that the increase in vacancies is not due to a surge in demand for labour, but because the labour force is shrinking: it dropped by 1.6% or 561,000 between the first quarters (Jan-March) of 2020 and 2022, which is greater than the increase in job vacancies over the same period (492,000).
Notably, people’s reasons for being economically inactive have changed over the past couple of years. Following the first COVID lockdown, the large drop in labour supply among 16-64s (those of working age) was mainly driven by rises in long-term sickness (139,000) and early retirement (70,000).
The drop in the workforce also masks a considerable churn within it, which may be adding to employers’ difficulties in recruiting staff. During the first lockdown, the number of EU workers fell by some 300,000. This has partially recovered, as you can see in the chart below, but there are still around 100,000 fewer than at the start of the pandemic.
Yet this has been more than offset by continued long-term growth in the number of non-EU foreign-born workers in the UK, increasing by some 170,000 since the start of the pandemic. Brexit, in other words, in tandem with the pandemic, has been a source of churn in the labour market.
The rise in the rate of job vacancies appears remarkably uneven across local authority districts in Great Britain. The two maps below show the change from before the pandemic in February 2020 (on the left) to July 2021 (on the right), the most recent month for which we have been able to compute data. This is likely to still be indicative of the most recent geographic pattern.
It shows huge increases in vacancies in relatively few districts, while most others show either modest increases or falls. The highest rates are particularly found in remoter rural areas, particularly in the south-west and north-west of England, and in parts of inner London.
Many of these districts are dependent on foreign labour, particularly for agriculture in rural areas, and hospitality and other sectors in London. Again, this may be a sign of the effect of Brexit and the pandemic choking off the growth in the number of EU workers.
Cost of living crisis: 'People heating one room with firewood'
A classic rural example of the problems people are facing in terms of the cost of living crisis. This story tells us:
High Ash Farm in Caistor St Edmund is a 500-acre arable farm. It is also a haven for wildlife, with half the farm set aside for flora and fauna. The farm has also diversified into horses, with 25 stables and paddocks for livery.
Daniel Skinner, the owner, says the rise in the cost of fuel is a major worry along with the tripling of fertiliser prices.
"The difficulty is cashflow. You need to be spending your money now on your fertiliser, but you're not going to realise that return for quite some time," he says.
"The other problem is increase in risk. If you get a really dry May, then your crop of barley on a south-facing slope could be completely droughted out.
"I suppose in a normal year that would be really bad, but in a year like this when your input costs have gone up so much, if something like that happens it would be a complete disaster - you could potentially lose everything."
He says some of his employees and many older people living in villages, are also having to make difficult decisions, especially when it comes to heating their homes.
"You're rarely on mains gas or anything like that. You're often heating you house with oil which isn't subject to the energy price cap," he says.
"We do [sell] quite a bit of firewood on this farm but in the last two or three months, there's been a lot of people really quite worried about heating their houses next winter.
"So they've been buying in a lot of firewood, with the intention of single-room heating of their house with firewood, rather than turning the central heating on.
"And they've been wanting to buy it now while the prices are much more moderate."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-61466013
Landline digital switch puts rural areas 'at risk', say campaigners
Now here’s a different spin on the challenge of rural connectivity. This article tells us:
Plans for a digital switchover which will render traditional landlines redundant will leave rural communities at risk, according to campaigners.
Despite a delay, BT is planning to replace analogue phone lines with broadband based ones by 2025.
In Shropshire, where signal can be "patchy", campaigners say older and more vulnerable people who rely on their landlines will be "cut off".
BT said the move to digital was a necessary upgrade and more efficient.
Earlier this year the telecoms giant announced a delay to the rollout, recognising that "we have more work to do on getting better back-up solutions in place for when things disrupt the service".
Councillor Heather Kidd, from Shropshire Council, is calling for the rollout to be held until there is a "solid plan" that can work for everyone.
She said it could leave people unable to call for help in the event of an emergency.
"Nobody has really come up with a way of making sure there's good mobile phone signal, but that still doesn't address those people that are not digitally enabled, who really can't use smartphones that the world thinks we can all depend on," she said.
"The landline for those people is an absolute."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-61377944
Royal Mail aims to open up to 50 drone routes for rural deliveries
In an antidote to the above article and the problems rural dwellers face this piece demonstrates one very positive outcome of new technology in the context of rural connectivity. It tells us:
The UK's Royal Mail wants to set up as many as 50 drone routes over the next three years to make deliveries to remote communities. The plan, which requires approval from the Civil Aviation Authority, would see the service secure up to 200 of the autonomous devices from logistics drone company Windracers.
The Royal Mail said the first communities to benefit would be the Isles of Scilly (off the coast of Cornwall in south-west England) and the Scottish islands of Shetland, Orkney and the Hebrides.
Test flights started last year. In the most recent one, held in April, the service was able to use a UAV to deliver mail to Unst, Britain's most northerly inhabited island, from Tingwall Airport on Shetland's largest island. That's a 50-mile flight each way.
The twin-engine drone used in the tests can carry a payload of up to 100 kg of mail and take two return flights each day. The Royal Mail said the device has a wingspan of 10 meters and can withstand difficult weather conditions with the help of its autopilot system. After the drone arrives at its destination, a postal worker will retrieve the mail and parcels and deliver them.
The Royal Mail claimed the drones would help it reduce carbon emissions and provide a more reliable delivery service to islands. It eventually hopes to have a fleet of more than 500 drones that will operate across the UK.
Lack of rural connectivity holding UK farming back – NFU
This is not such good news in terms of the competitiveness of rural economic activity. Please not the mobile connectivity point. I think we often concentrate on broadband without focusing enough on the sometimes very poor mobile connectivity of places. I also wonder why my mobile connectivity fluctuates and what is happening when it appears to get worse. I suspect capacity is being moved around the system without proper accountability. There are people who know more than me out there and I would be interested in any insights on this issue. The article tells us:
The National Farmers' Union (NFU) has said that the lack of rural connectivity is holding UK farming back.
This is a conclusion it has drawn based on the findings from its recently published Digital Technology Survey, which heard from 846 NFU farmer members between December 9, 2021 and March 13, 2022.
It found that only 38% of respondents said their broadband speed is sufficient for the needs of their business - which is 2% worse than the NFU's corresponding 2021 survey.
“This survey makes for very disappointing reading," said NFU vice president David Exwood.
"It shows that very little progress has been made over the past year to increase levels of broadband and mobile access in rural areas despite government promises to level up the country.
"This lack of digital connectivity puts a huge drain on time and efficiency as we’re effectively working with one arm tied behind our backs."
The survey also found that 83% of respondents are unable to get reliable mobile signal in all outdoor locations on their farm and only 44% said their phone signal is sufficient for the needs of their business.
https://www.agriland.co.uk/farming-news/lack-of-rural-connectivity-holding-uk-farming-back-nfu/
And Finally
Cornwall pub receives framed apology from Vogue magazine
Well just to prove that rural settings are at the cutting edge of fashion this article tells how:
A village pub has received a framed apology from the publishers of one of the world's biggest fashion magazines.
The Star Inn at Vogue pub in Cornwall had been asked to change its name by Vogue magazine's publishers as it might "cause problems".
Publishers Conde Nast later apologised and the pub has now received a framed version of the apology.
The parcel included a handwritten note that said: "From one Vogue to another - please accept our apologies."
Pub landlord Mark Graham said the response to the story has been "absolutely mind-blowing".
"It's gone worldwide. I was speaking to the Washington Post last night, and Australian TV for their 'Have I Got News for You' type show over there this morning."
The programme offered him 500 Australian dollars to donate to a charity of his choice.
"To be honest I don't think they [Vogue Magazine] have done too badly out of this mistake either. We are all friends now.
"But we still have some ideas to poke a bit of fun at them."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-61506944
About the author:
Hinterland is written for the Rural Services Network by Ivan Annibal, of rural economic practitioners Rose Regeneration. |
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